Haugesund 0-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees KFUM Oslo travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 0D 5L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.06 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.919 / defence 1.232 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.929 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Data: 35 Haugesund games / 5 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 49%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | KFUM Oslo 2.04. KFUM Oslo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Haugesund 1.06 / KFUM Oslo 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.919 / def 1.232 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.929 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.57
KFUM Oslo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Haugesund 0 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 26% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Haugesund and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and KFUM Oslo in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Haugesund home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
26%
3.92
25%
3.97
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.63
1.57
KFUM Oslo xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.57 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Haugesund won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
1
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
From 4 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as KFUM Oslo edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.06 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.57 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 26% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 49%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.