Haugesund 1-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Fredrikstad at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fredrikstad — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.89 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 0.80 PPG versus Fredrikstad's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Fredrikstad 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fredrikstad trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 53% versus Fredrikstad 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 47% | Fredrikstad 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.97 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.683 / defence 0.897 | Fredrikstad attack 0.998 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Haugesund games / 19 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 29% | Fredrikstad 41%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Fredrikstad 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 30% | Fredrikstad 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 29% | Fredrikstad 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Haugesund 0.97 / Fredrikstad 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.683 / def 0.897 | Fredrikstad attack 0.998 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fredrikstad xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Haugesund vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad part of?
Haugesund vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 30% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Haugesund and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Fredrikstad in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
30%
3.34
29%
3.42
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.15
1.18
Fredrikstad xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.18 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 3D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 3W 0D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.89 points per game from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.32 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 8W 7D 4L in their last 19 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.00 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Fredrikstad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Haugesund's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
2
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Fredrikstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Fredrikstad 2-2 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 33%, Fredrikstad 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Haugesund) and 44% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 44%; Haugesund have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Haugesund's recent matches and 44% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Haugesund's recent games and 44% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Fredrikstad 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Fredrikstad 1-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.97 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.68 / defence 0.90 against Fredrikstad attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 29% | Fredrikstad 41%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 47%, Fredrikstad 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.