Haugesund 0-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Haugesund welcome Aalesund to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 2D 3L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Haugesund are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Haugesund, 0 for Aalesund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2020, ended 3–1 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Aalesund in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 68%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 50% and Aalesund 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 54% | Aalesund 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.64 xG and Aalesund 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.050 / defence 1.303 | Aalesund attack 0.734 / defence 1.821. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.363. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.821 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Haugesund games / 22 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 66% | Draw 18% | Aalesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Aalesund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Aalesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 66% | Draw 18% | Aalesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG Haugesund 2.64 / Aalesund 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.050 / def 1.303 | Aalesund attack 0.734 / def 1.821 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Aalesund xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Aalesund kick off?
Haugesund vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 October 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Haugesund vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Aalesund part of?
Haugesund vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 66% chance of winning, Aalesund a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Haugesund and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Aalesund in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.58
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.95
1.30
Aalesund xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
7%
14.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
1%
85.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.30 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 8W 4D 10L from 22 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 17L across 22 games — 0.32 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Haugesund by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Aalesund's away record stands at 0W 2D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.14 scored and 2.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 8W 4D 10L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 17L in their last 22 (0.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Aalesund away?
Haugesund's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.70 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Aalesund in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Aalesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Haugesund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Haugesund
2
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Aalesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, Aalesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 70% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 70% of Aalesund's.
Do Haugesund and Aalesund tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.64 xG and Aalesund 1.30 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.05 / defence 1.30 against Aalesund attack 0.73 / defence 1.82, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 66% | Draw 18% | Aalesund 16%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Aalesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 54%, Aalesund 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aalesund's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.32. Form was overturned, with Aalesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.