Ham-Kam 2-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host Stromsgodset at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ham-Kam 0.80 PPG, Stromsgodset 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 0 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 70% and Stromsgodset 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 53% | Stromsgodset 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.13 xG and Stromsgodset 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.974 / defence 0.897 | Stromsgodset attack 1.202 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.031. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stromsgodset have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Ham-Kam games / 32 Stromsgodset games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 61% | Draw 20% | Stromsgodset 19%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Stromsgodset 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 61% | Draw 20% | Stromsgodset 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Ham-Kam 2.13 / Stromsgodset 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.974 / def 0.897 | Stromsgodset attack 1.202 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Stromsgodset xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam 2 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset part of?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 61% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.92
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.24
1.11
Stromsgodset xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
2%
44.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.11 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 6W 13D 11L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 15L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.03 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.47 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Stromsgodset away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 60%, Stromsgodset 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ham-Kam) and 60% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games; Stromsgodset in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 40% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 60% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Stromsgodset 2-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.13 xG and Stromsgodset 1.11 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 1.20 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 61% | Draw 20% | Stromsgodset 19%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, Stromsgodset 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.03 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.