Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ham-Kam, 5 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 0–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 67% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.42 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.937 / defence 1.151 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.874 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Ham-Kam games / 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 37% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 37% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Ham-Kam 1.42 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.937 / def 1.151 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.874 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 37% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (9 meetings): Ham-Kam 3W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.87x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
37%
2.69
25%
3.96
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.85
1.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.43 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 18L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 12W 5D 7L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.71 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 1-7 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 71%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ham-Kam and 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ham-Kam's games and 58% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ham-Kam's matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.