Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host ODD Ballklubb at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Briskeby Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ham-Kam have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, ODD Ballklubb have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Ham-Kam.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
It is worth noting that ODD Ballklubb have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 46% versus ODD Ballklubb 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 52% | ODD Ballklubb 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.38 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.865 / defence 0.997 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.802 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.367. Data: 48 Ham-Kam games / 48 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 30%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
ODD Ballklubb lead the H2H ledger, but Ham-Kam carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 30% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ham-Kam 1.38 / ODD Ballklubb 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.865 / def 0.997 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.802 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.09
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Ham-Kam 1 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 43% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 4W.
What form are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.73
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.47
1.09
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.09 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 10D 23L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.17 PPG from 48 outings (14W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.15 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 7W 6D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.27 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.17 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ham-Kam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
0
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 35%, ODD Ballklubb 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ham-Kam) and 61% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 30%; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 44% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 56% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 61% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.38 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.09 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 30%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 52%, ODD Ballklubb 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.15 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.