Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as Ham-Kam welcome Kristiansund BK to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 0.90 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Ham-Kam have won 3, Kristiansund BK 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 56% versus Kristiansund BK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 65% | Kristiansund BK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.913 / defence 1.067 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.653 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.376. Data: 47 Ham-Kam games / 46 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 53% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 60% | Kristiansund BK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 53% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Ham-Kam 1.64 / Kristiansund BK 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.913 / def 1.067 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.653 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kristiansund BK xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam 2 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 53% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Record (7 meetings): Ham-Kam 3W | Draws 3 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.91x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Kristiansund BK xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
23.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.96 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 11D 20L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 13W 10D 23L from 46 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.22 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 4D 13L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.07 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.68 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
4
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 68%, Kristiansund BK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ham-Kam's games and 54% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ham-Kam's matches and 50% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.65 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 53% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 65%, Kristiansund BK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.22 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.