Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fredrikstad face Bodo/Glimt.

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Full Analysis

Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 4 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Bodo/Glimt hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2026, ended 0–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

It is worth noting that Bodo/Glimt have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 48% versus Bodo/Glimt 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 46% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.04 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / defence 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Fredrikstad games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 26% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 49%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.04. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.

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