Brann vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 April 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and Rosenborg 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.59 xG and Rosenborg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.937 / defence 0.996 | Rosenborg attack 0.909 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Brann games / 30 Rosenborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brann 45% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 3.57. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Rosenborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 45% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.59 / Rosenborg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.937 / def 0.996 | Rosenborg attack 0.909 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Rosenborg kick off?
Brann vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Rosenborg part of?
Brann vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 45% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.94) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.91x) against Brann's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.66
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Brann xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Rosenborg xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Brann and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Brann and 1.22 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.13 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Brann or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
3
Draws
1
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Rosenborg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Rosenborg?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 87%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brann) and 53% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Brann's games and 40% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 53% of Rosenborg's.
Do Brann and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Brann and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.59 xG and Rosenborg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Rosenborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 45% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 28%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.