Brann 2-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host ODD Ballklubb at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Brann) versus 0.80 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Brann, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and ODD Ballklubb 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 55% | ODD Ballklubb 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.59 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.813 / defence 1.188 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.982 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.377. ODD Ballklubb bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Brann games / 29 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 37%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | ODD Ballklubb 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | ODD Ballklubb 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Brann 1.59 / ODD Ballklubb 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.813 / def 1.188 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.982 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.61
ODD Ballklubb xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Brann vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 22 December 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Brann 2 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Brann vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 37% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Brann and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Brann and ODD Ballklubb in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brann's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.83
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Brann xG
Total xG
3.20
1.61
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Brann and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Brann and 1.61 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Brann have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 8W 9D 12L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 4D 12L from 29 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.14 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 7L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.76 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 12L in their last 29 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
ODD Ballklubb's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.00 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Brann
1
Draws
3
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 86%, ODD Ballklubb 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Brann) and 50% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Brann's games and 43% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Brann's recent games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.59 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.61 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 / defence 1.44, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 37% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 37%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 55%, ODD Ballklubb 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.14 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.