Brann 1-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KFUM Oslo make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 6W 2D 2L at Brann Stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KFUM Oslo's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Brann. A 1.00 PPG lead over KFUM Oslo (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brann, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with KFUM Oslo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 61% versus KFUM Oslo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | KFUM Oslo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.62 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.119 / defence 0.934 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.871 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.390. Data: 57 Brann games / 57 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 26%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | KFUM Oslo 3.85. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 60% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 1.62 / KFUM Oslo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.119 / def 0.934 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.871 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Brann (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.13
KFUM Oslo xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Brann vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Brann 1 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Brann vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Brann vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 48% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Brann and KFUM Oslo in?
Brann (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (1.12) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.87x) against Brann's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.80
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Brann xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
KFUM Oslo xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Brann and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Brann and 1.13 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 57 games, going 33W 12D 12L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.25 PPG from 57 outings (17W 20D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 18W 5D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 33W 12D 12L in their last 57 games (1.95 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 20D 20L in their last 57 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Brann's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.11 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Brann 2-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 61%, KFUM Oslo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Brann) and 43% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Brann's games and 50% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Brann's recent games and 43% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and KFUM Oslo finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.62 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.87 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 48% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 26%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.