Brann vs Bodo/Glimt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 6 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 69% versus Bodo/Glimt 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 79% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.42 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.086 / defence 1.018 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Brann games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 30% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 48%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Bodo/Glimt 2.08. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 30% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Brann 1.42 / Bodo/Glimt 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.086 / def 1.018 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Bodo/Glimt xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is scheduled to kick off at 17:15 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 30% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Brann and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (10 meetings): Brann 2W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 6W.
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.27x) against Brann's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
30%
3.38
23%
4.38
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Brann xG
Total xG
3.26
1.84
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Brann and 1.84 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 7D 16L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.38 PPG from 48 outings (36W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 15W 3D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.21 points per game from 24 outings (16W 5D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.75 scored and 0.88 conceded. Brann's scoring rate against Bodo/Glimt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 25W 7D 16L in their last 48 games (1.71 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 6D 6L in their last 48 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.00 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Brann or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
6
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Brann, 62% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Brann and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Brann's games and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Brann's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Brann and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.