Brann 4-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brann face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Brann's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.80 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Brann's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Brann's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Brann 2–2 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Bodo/Glimt 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Bodo/Glimt 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.57 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.057 / defence 0.956 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.600 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.600, which lifts their away xG to 2.07. Data: built from Brann's last 28 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 58.
Result probabilities: Brann 29% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 49%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.39 | Draw 4.73 | Bodo/Glimt 2.03. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.57 / 2.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 29% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Brann 1.57 / Bodo/Glimt 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.057 / def 0.956 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.600 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Brann xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Brann 4 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 29% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Brann and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brann vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.60x) against Brann's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 28 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
29%
3.39
21%
4.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Brann xG
Total xG
3.65
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.39
29%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
4%
26.99
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Brann and 2.07 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 28 games, going 18W 4D 6L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.39 PPG from 28 outings (21W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Brann against 2.39 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 11W 2D 1L across their last 14 home games, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.29 points per game from their last 14 away games (10W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.64 scored and 1.21 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 61%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Brann (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Brann vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 18W 4D 6L in their last 28 games (2.07 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 21W 4D 3L in their last 28 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Brann's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.50 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Brann or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Brann on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brann
2
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Brann 2-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 64%, Bodo/Glimt 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Brann and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Brann's games and 64% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brann and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Brann's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Brann and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Brann's recent matches and 86% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Bodo/Glimt 4-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.57 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.60 / defence 0.85, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 29% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 49%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Bodo/Glimt 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 2.07 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 2.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.