Aalesund 2-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 37%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Aalesund vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Aalesund welcome Valerenga to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valerenga away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Valerenga are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Aalesund, 0 for Valerenga and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 67% and Valerenga 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 77% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.42 xG and Valerenga 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.831 / defence 1.141 | Valerenga attack 0.844 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.465. Data: 10 Aalesund games / 40 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 37% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 37%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Valerenga 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 37% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Aalesund 1.42 / Valerenga 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.831 / def 1.141 | Valerenga attack 0.844 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Valerenga xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Aalesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Aalesund 2 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Aalesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Valerenga part of?
Aalesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 37% chance of winning, Valerenga a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Aalesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.83) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.87
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.83
1.41
Valerenga xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.41 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aalesund's recent record stands at 2W 5D 23L from 30 games, a 0.37 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 7L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 3D 11L from 15 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.53 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Valerenga in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 games (0.37 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 11W 12D 7L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.40 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and Valerenga runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Aalesund
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 80%, Valerenga at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Aalesund and 60% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Aalesund's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Aalesund's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Aalesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Valerenga share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Aalesund and Valerenga drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.42 xG and Valerenga 1.41 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Valerenga attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 37% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 37%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 77%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.