Willem II 1-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Willem II welcome Heerenveen to Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Willem II have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Willem II's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Heerenveen — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Heerenveen away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Willem II 1.10 PPG, Heerenveen 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Willem II have won 0, Heerenveen 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2022, ended Willem II 0–0 Heerenveen — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.76 xG and Heerenveen 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.714 / defence 0.979 | Heerenveen attack 0.630 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.273. Willem II's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.76. Heerenveen's defence rating of 1.456 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Heerenveen's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Willem II's last 14 games and Heerenveen's last 48.
Result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 16%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.65 | Draw 4.34 | Heerenveen 6.13. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 50% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 15 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Willem II 1.76 / Heerenveen 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.714 / def 0.979 | Heerenveen attack 0.630 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Heerenveen xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Heerenveen kick off?
Willem II vs Heerenveen kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Willem II 1 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Willem II vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Heerenveen part of?
Willem II vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 61% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Willem II and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Willem II vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 14 games and Heerenveen's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.34
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.55
0.79
Heerenveen xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
35.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Willem II and 0.79 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 48 games, going 26W 12D 10L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (14W 10D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 15W 5D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 4D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.40 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 26W 12D 10L in their last 48 games (1.88 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Heerenveen away?
Willem II's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.08 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heerenveen?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 0, Heerenveen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 62%, Heerenveen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Willem II and 62% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Willem II's recent matches and 46% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Willem II and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 62% of Heerenveen's.
Do Willem II and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Willem II's recent matches and 75% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heerenveen defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.76 xG and Heerenveen 0.79 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Heerenveen attack 0.63 / defence 1.46, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 61% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 16%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Heerenveen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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