Willem II 0-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajax at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Ajax at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajax — 2.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for Ajax and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2021, ended 0–5 with Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ajax trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 82% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Willem II 50% | Ajax 14%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 59% | Ajax 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 0.59 xG and Ajax 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.780 / defence 1.200 | Ajax attack 1.222 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.382. Willem II's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Willem II games / 22 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 10% | Draw 19% | Ajax 71%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | Ajax 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Ajax 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 10% | Draw 19% | Ajax 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 39% | xG Willem II 0.59 / Ajax 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.780 / def 1.200 | Ajax attack 1.222 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Ajax (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Ajax xG
39%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Ajax kick off?
Willem II vs Ajax kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Ajax?
Willem II 0 - 1 Ajax.
Where is Willem II vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Ajax part of?
Willem II vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 10% chance of winning, Ajax a 71% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Willem II and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 1W.
What form are Willem II and Ajax in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Ajax (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.78x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-3 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
10%
10.31
19%
5.26
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
0 – 3
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.62
2.03
Ajax xG
10.31
10%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
55%
1.80
Win to Nil
1%
78.26
40%
2.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Willem II and 2.03 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II's recent record stands at 6W 3D 13L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 17W 3D 2L across 22 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajax's away record stands at 8W 2D 0L across 10 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 3.14 scored and 0.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 14%.
Defensively: Ajax in 82% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Ajax in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Ajax have gone 17W 3D 2L in their last 22 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.30 PPG; Ajax away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Willem II or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Ajax in 82%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajax go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
4
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Ajax?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Ajax have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Willem II 50% BTTS, Ajax 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 40% (Ajax).
On the defensive side: Ajax in 80%; Willem II have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Willem II's recent matches and 20% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Willem II's recent games and 40% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Ajax tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ajax in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 0.59 xG and Ajax 2.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajax landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Ajax attack 1.22 / defence 0.68, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 10% | Draw 19% | Ajax 71%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 59%, Ajax 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajax's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 82% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.