Waalwijk 5-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as Waalwijk welcome Excelsior to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 3W 3D 4L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Excelsior — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Excelsior's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Excelsior in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 66% and Excelsior 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | Excelsior 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.61 xG and Excelsior 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.798 / defence 0.909 | Excelsior attack 0.824 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.419. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Waalwijk games / 4 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 50% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 25%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Excelsior 4.00. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | Excelsior 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 50% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Waalwijk 1.61 / Excelsior 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.798 / def 0.909 | Excelsior attack 0.824 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Excelsior xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Excelsior kick off?
Waalwijk vs Excelsior kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Waalwijk 5 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Waalwijk vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Excelsior part of?
Waalwijk vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 50% chance of winning, Excelsior a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Waalwijk and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Excelsior in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Excelsior (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.80x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.02
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.67
1.06
Excelsior xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.06 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 9W 14D 15L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior's form line: 18W 11D 9L from 38 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 9W 5D 4L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.21 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Excelsior in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.06 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
3
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Excelsior have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Excelsior 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Excelsior?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 56%, Excelsior 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waalwijk) and 56% (Excelsior).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Waalwijk's games and 56% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waalwijk's recent games and 56% of Excelsior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Excelsior tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Excelsior 5-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.61 xG and Excelsior 1.06 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.80 / defence 0.91 against Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 50% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 25%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.