Waalwijk 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Waalwijk welcome Cambuur to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Cambuur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 70% and Cambuur 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 60% | Cambuur 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.58 xG and Cambuur 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.732 / defence 1.056 | Cambuur attack 0.815 / defence 1.578. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.337. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.578 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Waalwijk games / 10 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 28%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 3.57. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 60% | Cambuur 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Waalwijk 1.58 / Cambuur 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.732 / def 1.056 | Cambuur attack 0.815 / def 1.578 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cambuur xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Cambuur kick off?
Waalwijk vs Cambuur kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Waalwijk 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Waalwijk vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Cambuur part of?
Waalwijk vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 47% chance of winning, Cambuur a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and Cambuur in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.73x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.00
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.73
1.15
Cambuur xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.15 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 6L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.00 PPG, Cambuur on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cambuur's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.80 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Cambuur in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Cambuur away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 75%, Cambuur 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Waalwijk and 75% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 25% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Waalwijk's matches and 75% of Cambuur's.
Do Waalwijk and Cambuur tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Waalwijk 0-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.58 xG and Cambuur 1.15 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Cambuur attack 0.81 / defence 1.58, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 47% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 28%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, Cambuur 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.00 PPG, Cambuur 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.