Utrecht 0-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PSV Eindhoven make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utrecht have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Galgenwaard this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Utrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PSV Eindhoven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Utrecht 0W, PSV Eindhoven 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 60% and PSV Eindhoven 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Utrecht 64% | PSV Eindhoven 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.31 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.110 / defence 1.151 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.286 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.321. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Utrecht games / 25 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 26% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 52%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | PSV Eindhoven 1.92. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 26% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Utrecht 1.31 / PSV Eindhoven 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.110 / def 1.151 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.286 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.96
PSV Eindhoven xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven?
Utrecht 0 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 26% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 1.11x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.29x) against Utrecht's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
26%
3.91
22%
4.55
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.27
1.96
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
14%
7.07
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.66
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.96 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 11W 7D 7L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 19W 1D 5L from 25 games, 2.32 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 9W 1D 2L from 12 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.48 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 11W 7D 7L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 19W 1D 5L in their last 25 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.08 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 6-1 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Utrecht
3
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 4-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 67%, PSV Eindhoven 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Utrecht and 75% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Utrecht's games and 58% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Utrecht's matches and 75% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.31 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.96 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.29 / defence 1.03, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 26% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 52%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 64%, PSV Eindhoven 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.