Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games (1.83 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utrecht have posted 2W 1D 0L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.17 PPG across 6 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Utrecht. A 1.66 PPG lead over PEC Zwolle (1.83 vs 0.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 83% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Utrecht 33% | PEC Zwolle 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Utrecht 67% | PEC Zwolle 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.98 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.335 / defence 1.026 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.498 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.365. Utrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Utrecht games / 6 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 68% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 12%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | PEC Zwolle 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 67% | PEC Zwolle 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 68% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 43% | xG Utrecht 1.98 / PEC Zwolle 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.335 / def 1.026 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.498 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.70
PEC Zwolle xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht 5 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 68% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Utrecht and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.33) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.50x) against Utrecht's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
68%
1.48
20%
4.95
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.68
0.70
PEC Zwolle xG
1.48
68%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
2%
59.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.70 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Utrecht's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 17%.
Defensively: Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Utrecht's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.33 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Utrecht or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utrecht
3
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Utrecht) and 0% (PEC Zwolle) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Utrecht) and 0% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Utrecht's recent matches and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Utrecht's recent games and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 5-1 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat PEC Zwolle 5-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.98 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.70 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.33 / defence 1.03 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.50 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 68% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 12%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 67%, PEC Zwolle 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.