Twente 1-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Twente vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Twente host Cambuur at De Grolsch Veste in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Twente — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Twente's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at De Grolsch Veste this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Grolsch Veste.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Twente have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Twente, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Twente in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cambuur in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Twente 62% and Cambuur 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 54% | Cambuur 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.78 xG and Cambuur 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.130 / defence 0.939 | Cambuur attack 0.950 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.321. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Twente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Twente games / 24 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Twente 51% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 24%. Fair-value odds: Twente 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 4.17. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Twente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Twente 50% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 51% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Twente 1.78 / Cambuur 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.130 / def 0.939 | Cambuur attack 0.950 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Twente (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Twente xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cambuur xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Twente vs Cambuur kick off?
Twente vs Cambuur kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs Cambuur?
Twente 1 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Twente vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs Cambuur part of?
Twente vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 51% chance of winning, Cambuur a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Twente and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Twente vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Twente 0W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Twente and Cambuur in?
Twente (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Twente's attack at 1.13x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Twente's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.04
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Twente xG
Total xG
2.96
1.18
Cambuur xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Twente and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Twente and 1.18 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Twente come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 6D 5L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (10W 3D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Twente's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Twente are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.71 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Twente have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Cambuur in 75%.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Twente and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 10W 3D 11L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or Cambuur away?
Twente's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Twente and Cambuur runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Twente go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when Twente won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Twente's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Twente
0
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Twente have won 3, Cambuur have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Twente and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Twente 4-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Twente and Cambuur?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Twente see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cambuur see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Twente 54%, Cambuur 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Twente) and 64% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cambuur in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Twente play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Twente's recent matches and 54% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Twente vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Twente's recent games and 64% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Twente edge out Cambuur 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Cambuur 1-0 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.78 xG and Cambuur 1.18 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Cambuur attack 0.95 / defence 1.37, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 51% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 24%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 54%, Cambuur 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.