Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1W 5D 4L at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Rotterdam 0.60 PPG, Willem II 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sparta Rotterdam have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Willem II have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 4–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Rotterdam and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Willem II trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 50% versus Willem II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Willem II 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.06 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.857 / defence 1.162 | Willem II attack 0.693 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.795. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sparta Rotterdam games / 8 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Draw 24% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Willem II 4.00. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Draw 24% | Willem II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.06 / Willem II 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.857 / def 1.162 | Willem II attack 0.693 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.795 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Willem II xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 50% chance of winning, Willem II a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 4W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.11
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.50
1.45
Willem II xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
3%
30.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.45 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 14L across 42 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 11W 3D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.19 PPG; Willem II away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, Willem II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 48%, Willem II 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 67% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 33%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 62% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 67% of Willem II's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Willem II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Willem II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Willem II 3-2 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 2.06 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Willem II attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Draw 24% | Willem II 25%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 60%, Willem II 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.