PSV Eindhoven 2-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (75%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PSV Eindhoven face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's record over their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
PSV Eindhoven's home record over their last 10 home games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AZ Alkmaar have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward PSV Eindhoven. A 0.80 PPG lead over AZ Alkmaar (2.40 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours PSV Eindhoven, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against AZ Alkmaar — AZ Alkmaar have 2 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar — a PSV Eindhoven win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 49% versus AZ Alkmaar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 74% | AZ Alkmaar 67%). Note also that AZ Alkmaar surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while PSV Eindhoven recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.69 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.817 / defence 0.643 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.091 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.295. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack rating of 1.817 — their 2.69 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PSV Eindhoven have a tight defence (rating 0.643), which is pulling AZ Alkmaar's projected output down. Data: built from PSV Eindhoven's last 51 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 51.
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 15% | AZ Alkmaar 10%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.33 | Draw 6.77 | AZ Alkmaar 9.83. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (75%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PSV Eindhoven's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PSV Eindhoven 50% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 18 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 15% | AZ Alkmaar 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.69 / AZ Alkmaar 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.817 / def 0.643 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.091 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
PSV Eindhoven 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 18) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 75% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.82x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 2.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.09x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from PSV Eindhoven's last 51 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.77
10%
9.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.60
0.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.77
15%
Draw
9.83
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
7%
14.79
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
145.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.91 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.67 PPG on a 44W 4D 3L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 29W 10D 12L from 51 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.92 PPG from their last 25 home games (24W 1D 0L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 6D 6L from their last 25 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.98 scored and 1.10 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's attacking output running into PSV Eindhoven's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; AZ Alkmaar in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
PSV Eindhoven (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 44W 4D 3L in their last 51 games (2.67 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 10D 12L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.92 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.80 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won AZ Alkmaar 0-4 PSV Eindhoven on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 44%, AZ Alkmaar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for PSV Eindhoven and 64% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 64% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 80% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.69 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.91 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.82 / defence 0.64 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 15% | AZ Alkmaar 10%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 74%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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