PEC Zwolle 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.20 for NEC Nijmegen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PEC Zwolle lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 35% versus NEC Nijmegen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PEC Zwolle 30% | NEC Nijmegen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.87 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.692 / defence 1.061 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.901 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.367. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 PEC Zwolle games / 20 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 46%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | NEC Nijmegen 2.17. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 30% | NEC Nijmegen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.87 / NEC Nijmegen 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.692 / def 1.061 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.901 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
NEC Nijmegen xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 24% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.69x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.90x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
24%
4.10
29%
3.40
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.18
1.31
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
7%
15.16
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.8 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.31 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 3W 3D 14L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 7W 5D 8L from 20 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NEC Nijmegen are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 3D 14L in their last 20 games (0.60 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.80 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.70 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
5
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 30%, NEC Nijmegen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for PEC Zwolle and 50% for NEC Nijmegen.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 60% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.87 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.31 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 46%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 30%, NEC Nijmegen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.