PEC Zwolle 3-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Fortuna Sittard.

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Full Analysis

MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

PEC Zwolle have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PEC Zwolle at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fortuna Sittard's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended PEC Zwolle 1–3 Fortuna Sittard — a Fortuna Sittard win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 64% versus Fortuna Sittard 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Fortuna Sittard 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.867 / defence 1.251 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.716 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.218. Fortuna Sittard's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Sittard's projected output up. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 45 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 45.

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 29%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.27 | Draw 3.75 | Fortuna Sittard 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 80% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 30% (last 10 away games).

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