PEC Zwolle 1-5 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Feyenoord (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PEC Zwolle face Feyenoord.

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Analysis

Feyenoord make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

PEC Zwolle (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

PEC Zwolle at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Feyenoord have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Feyenoord have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Feyenoord have the stronger record — 4 wins to PEC Zwolle's 0, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended PEC Zwolle 0–5 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 66% versus Feyenoord 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 63% | Feyenoord 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.33 xG and Feyenoord 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.955 / defence 1.115 | Feyenoord attack 1.150 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.340. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 35 games and Feyenoord's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 45%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.48 | Draw 3.87 | Feyenoord 2.20. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 80% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (PEC Zwolle 35 games, Feyenoord 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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