PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Excelsior at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 1.00 PPG versus Excelsior's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Excelsior and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 62% versus Excelsior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 52% | Excelsior 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG and Excelsior 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.915 / defence 0.911 | Excelsior attack 0.798 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.302. Data: 63 PEC Zwolle games / 29 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 20%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Excelsior 5.00. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.57 / Excelsior 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.915 / def 0.911 | Excelsior attack 0.798 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Excelsior xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 49% chance of winning, Excelsior a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Excelsior (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.92x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.22
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.52
0.95
Excelsior xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
24.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.95 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 18W 20D 25L from 63 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 23L across 63 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.17 PPG, Excelsior on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 14W 7D 9L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Excelsior's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Excelsior in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 18W 20D 25L in their last 63 games (1.17 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 27W 13D 23L in their last 63 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Excelsior away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.63 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, Excelsior 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PEC Zwolle) and 67% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 70% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 67% of Excelsior's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Excelsior tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Excelsior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle and Excelsior finished level at 2-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG and Excelsior 0.95 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Excelsior attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 20%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 52%, Excelsior 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.17 PPG, Excelsior 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.