PEC Zwolle 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Almere City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Almere City FC have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Almere City FC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for PEC Zwolle, 1.20 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended PEC Zwolle 2–1 Almere City FC — a PEC Zwolle win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 58% versus Almere City FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 66% | Almere City FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG and Almere City FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.714 / defence 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.432. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.685 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 21 games and Almere City FC's last 21.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 37% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 30%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.73 | Draw 3.00 | Almere City FC 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 37% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.26 / Almere City FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.714 / def 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.685 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 37% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.71) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.69x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 21 games and Almere City FC's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.00
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Almere City FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.13 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 34W 10D 15L from 59 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 16L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.68 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 18W 4D 7L from their last 29 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 15W 6D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 34W 10D 15L in their last 59 games (1.90 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Almere City FC away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.00 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.76 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC, the earliest from January 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 55%, Almere City FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (PEC Zwolle) and 38% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Almere City FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 45% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 38% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 76% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG and Almere City FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 37% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 30%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 66%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.90 PPG, Almere City FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 22
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →