NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NEC Nijmegen face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Goffertstadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, PSV Eindhoven in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to PSV Eindhoven, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 84% and PSV Eindhoven 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 76% | PSV Eindhoven 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.38 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.986 / defence 0.957 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.416 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — the away xG of 2.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 NEC Nijmegen games / 38 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 19% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 62%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | PSV Eindhoven 1.61. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | PSV Eindhoven 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 19% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.38 / PSV Eindhoven 2.55 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.986 / def 0.957 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.416 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
2.55
PSV Eindhoven xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Goffertstadion.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 19% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (10 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 1 | PSV Eindhoven 7W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 0.99x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.42x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 2.55.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 1-3 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
19%
5.30
19%
5.34
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.92
2.55
PSV Eindhoven xG
5.30
19%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
8%
12.76
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
1%
67.56
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.55 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 18W 11D 8L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 29W 4D 4L from 37 games, 2.46 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEC Nijmegen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 15W 1D 2L from 18 away games — 2.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.97 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 84% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 78%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 29W 4D 4L in their last 37 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.78 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 4-0 on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for NEC Nijmegen, 78% for PSV Eindhoven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for NEC Nijmegen and 83% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 78% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 83% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.