NEC Nijmegen 1-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NEC Nijmegen face PEC Zwolle.

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Full Analysis

Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 3). Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 18:45 UK time.

Form

NEC Nijmegen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

NEC Nijmegen's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NEC Nijmegen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

PEC Zwolle have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, PEC Zwolle have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for NEC Nijmegen, 0.80 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–2 PEC Zwolle — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

NEC Nijmegen half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 67% and PEC Zwolle 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 69% | PEC Zwolle 64%). Note also that PEC Zwolle surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while NEC Nijmegen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.76 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.015 / defence 1.088 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.860 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.346. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 36 games and PEC Zwolle's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 48% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 26%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.08 | Draw 3.91 | PEC Zwolle 3.79. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 60% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (NEC Nijmegen 36 games, PEC Zwolle 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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