NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feyenoord (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Feyenoord's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.80 for Feyenoord. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 4 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 4–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 62% and Feyenoord 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 68% | Feyenoord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.83 xG and Feyenoord 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.200 / defence 1.179 | Feyenoord attack 1.003 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.302. Data: 63 NEC Nijmegen games / 63 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 42% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 30%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Feyenoord 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 80% | Feyenoord 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 42% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.83 / Feyenoord 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.200 / def 1.179 | Feyenoord attack 1.003 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Feyenoord xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 42% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
Record (9 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 4 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.00x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.68
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.37
1.54
Feyenoord xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
5%
20.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.54 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 27W 15D 21L from 63 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 36W 14D 13L across 63 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEC Nijmegen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 14W 9D 7L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 14W 9D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.17 scored and 1.24 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 27W 15D 21L in their last 63 games (1.52 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 36W 14D 13L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Feyenoord away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.70 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.70 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-4 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
5
Draws
4
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Feyenoord have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 73%, Feyenoord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for NEC Nijmegen and 57% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 53% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 57% of Feyenoord's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.83 xG and Feyenoord 1.54 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.20 / defence 1.18 against Feyenoord attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 42% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 30%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, Feyenoord 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.