NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host FC Volendam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 2W 8D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.60 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 4–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 50% versus FC Volendam 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 38% | FC Volendam 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.89 xG and FC Volendam 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.016 / defence 0.911 | FC Volendam attack 0.774 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.208. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 NEC Nijmegen games / 22 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 59% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 14%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | FC Volendam 7.14. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 59% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.89 / FC Volendam 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.016 / def 0.911 | FC Volendam attack 0.774 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.85
FC Volendam xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 59% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.02x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
59%
1.68
27%
3.75
14%
7.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.74
0.85
FC Volendam xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
7.15
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
47.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.85 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 15W 20D 21L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 16L across 56 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEC Nijmegen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 5W 13D 10L from 28 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 9W 11D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.73 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 68%.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 15W 20D 21L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 25W 15D 16L in their last 56 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, FC Volendam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 54%, FC Volendam 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (NEC Nijmegen) and 54% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 61% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 54% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.89 xG and FC Volendam 0.85 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against FC Volendam attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 59% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 14%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 38%, FC Volendam 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.