NAC Breda 2-4 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda in Eredivisie (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NAC Breda at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Heerenveen have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.60 PPG, Heerenveen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, NAC Breda have won 0, Heerenveen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended NAC Breda 0–4 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 61% versus Heerenveen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 59% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.95 xG and Heerenveen 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.828 / defence 1.006 | Heerenveen attack 0.658 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.317. Heerenveen's defence rating of 1.388 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NAC Breda's projected output up. Heerenveen's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 17 games and Heerenveen's last 51.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 63% | Draw 21% | Heerenveen 16%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.60 | Draw 4.70 | Heerenveen 6.20. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 60% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 18 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 63% | Draw 21% | Heerenveen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG NAC Breda 1.95 / Heerenveen 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.828 / def 1.006 | Heerenveen attack 0.658 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Heerenveen xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs Heerenveen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
NAC Breda 2 - 4 Heerenveen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen part of?
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 18) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 63% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NAC Breda and Heerenveen will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will NAC Breda vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.83) and Heerenveen's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 17 games and Heerenveen's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.70
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.82
0.87
Heerenveen xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
43.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.87 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 22W 11D 18L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Heerenveen's form line: 16W 10D 25L from 51 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.51 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 26 home games (13W 6D 7L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 5W 4D 17L from their last 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.37 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
NAC Breda (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 16W 10D 25L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heerenveen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.73 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2024, when Heerenveen won Heerenveen 4-0 NAC Breda.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, Heerenveen have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: NAC Breda 2-0 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 65%, Heerenveen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for NAC Breda and 65% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Heerenveen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and Heerenveen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NAC Breda's games and 46% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of Heerenveen's.
Do NAC Breda and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 69% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat NAC Breda 2-4 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.95 xG and Heerenveen 0.87 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Heerenveen attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 63% | Draw 21% | Heerenveen 16%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Heerenveen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 59%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.51 PPG, Heerenveen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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