Heracles 1-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Groningen meet at Asito Stadium in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Heracles at Asito Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Groningen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Groningen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Groningen arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Heracles, 2 for Groningen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 57% versus Groningen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 63% | Groningen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.10 xG and Groningen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.667 / defence 1.268 | Groningen attack 0.982 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.289. Heracles's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Heracles games / 67 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 22% | Draw 32% | Groningen 46%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Groningen 2.17. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 40% | Groningen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 22% | Draw 32% | Groningen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Heracles 1.10 / Groningen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.667 / def 1.268 | Groningen attack 0.982 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Groningen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Groningen xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Groningen kick off?
Heracles vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Groningen?
Heracles 1 - 2 Groningen.
Where is Heracles vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Groningen part of?
Heracles vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 22% chance of winning, Groningen a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Heracles and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Groningen?
Record (5 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 1 | Groningen 2W.
What form are Heracles and Groningen in?
Heracles (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.67) and Groningen's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.98x) against Heracles's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
22%
4.45
32%
3.13
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.70
1.60
Groningen xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
5%
22.12
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Heracles and 1.60 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 14W 15D 38L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 23W 15D 29L from 67 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Groningen are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.21 PPG from 33 outings (10W 10D 13L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 8W 5D 20L from 33 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Groningen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 15D 38L in their last 67 games (0.85 PPG), while Groningen have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Groningen away?
Heracles's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.21 PPG; Groningen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Groningen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Heracles 1-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 67%, Groningen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Heracles) and 52% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Heracles's games and 58% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Heracles's matches and 52% of Groningen's.
Do Heracles and Groningen tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Groningen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out Heracles 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Heracles 1-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.10 xG and Groningen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.67 / defence 1.27 against Groningen attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 22% | Draw 32% | Groningen 46%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 63%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.