Heracles 3-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Heracles welcome Fortuna Sittard to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles at Erve Asito this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Heracles carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 46% versus Fortuna Sittard 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 36% | Fortuna Sittard 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.61 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.863 / defence 0.999 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.811 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.336. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Heracles games / 11 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 50% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 26%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 3.85. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 33% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 50% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Heracles 1.61 / Fortuna Sittard 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.863 / def 0.999 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.811 / def 1.449 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Heracles (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fortuna Sittard xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles 3 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 50% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Heracles and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.03
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.69
1.08
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Heracles and 1.08 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 2D 6L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heracles have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.18 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Heracles's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.00 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
3
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 40%, Fortuna Sittard 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Heracles) and 40% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Heracles have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Heracles's games and 80% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Heracles's recent games and 40% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.61 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.81 / defence 1.45, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 50% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 26%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 36%, Fortuna Sittard 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.