Heracles 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 47%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heracles vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Erve Asito to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Erve Asito this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Cambuur have posted 5W 0D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cambuur are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 53% and Cambuur 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 47% | Cambuur 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.93 xG and Cambuur 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.113 / defence 1.083 | Cambuur attack 1.029 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.392. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Heracles games / 17 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 31%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Cambuur 3.23. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 44% | Cambuur 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Heracles 1.93 / Cambuur 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.113 / def 1.083 | Cambuur attack 1.029 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Heracles (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Cambuur xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Cambuur kick off?
Heracles vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Cambuur?
Heracles 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Heracles vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Cambuur part of?
Heracles vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 47% chance of winning, Cambuur a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Heracles and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Heracles and Cambuur in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.11x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.03x) against Heracles's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.55
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.48
1.55
Cambuur xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Heracles and 1.55 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 2D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (9W 0D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Heracles's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.88 points per game from 8 outings (5W 0D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.82 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 0D 8L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Cambuur away?
Heracles's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Heracles
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Cambuur?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2021, when Heracles 1-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Heracles and 75% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Heracles's recent matches and 50% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Heracles's matches and 75% of Cambuur's.
Do Heracles and Cambuur tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 18, as Heracles and Cambuur drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.93 xG and Cambuur 1.55 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Cambuur attack 1.03 / defence 1.48, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 47% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 31%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 47%, Cambuur 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.