Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Groningen welcome Waalwijk to Euroborg in Eredivisie (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Groningen — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Groningen have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Groningen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Waalwijk's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Groningen have won 1, Waalwijk 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Groningen 2–1 Waalwijk — a Groningen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 53% | Waalwijk 59%). Note also that Waalwijk surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Groningen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.67 xG and Waalwijk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.897 / defence 0.917 | Waalwijk attack 0.963 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.291. Data: built from Groningen's last 30 games and Waalwijk's last 64.
Result probabilities: Groningen 49% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 25%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.06 | Draw 3.75 | Waalwijk 4.04. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Groningen 40% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 31 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 49% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Groningen 1.67 / Waalwijk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.897 / def 0.917 | Waalwijk attack 0.963 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Groningen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Waalwijk xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Groningen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Groningen 6 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Groningen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Waalwijk part of?
Groningen vs Waalwijk is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 49% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Groningen and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 30 games and Waalwijk's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.75
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.81
1.14
Waalwijk xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Groningen and 1.14 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 64 games, going 29W 16D 19L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.75 PPG from 64 outings (11W 15D 38L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Groningen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 18W 9D 5L across their last 32 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.56 points per game from their last 32 away games (4W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.14 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
Groningen (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Groningen vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 29W 16D 19L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 11W 15D 38L in their last 64 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Waalwijk away?
Groningen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.97 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Groningen or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Groningen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2025, when Groningen won Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Groningen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Waalwijk?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 2, Waalwijk have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Groningen and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 41%, Waalwijk 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Groningen) and 59% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 28% of games; Waalwijk in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Waalwijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Groningen's recent matches and 59% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Groningen's recent games and 59% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Groningen's recent matches and 81% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Waalwijk 6-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.67 xG and Waalwijk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Waalwijk attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 49% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 25%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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