Groningen 1-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Twente — this Groningen vs Twente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Groningen welcome Twente to Euroborg in Eredivisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Groningen at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Twente — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Twente have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 1.50 PPG, Twente 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Twente have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Groningen.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Groningen 0–2 Twente — a Twente win.
Twente have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Twente trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 46% versus Twente 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 53% | Twente 65%). Note also that Twente surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Groningen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.34 xG and Twente 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.704 / defence 0.764 | Twente attack 1.149 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.309. Groningen's attack rating of 0.704 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. Groningen have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Twente's projected output down. Data: built from Groningen's last 23 games and Twente's last 57.
Result probabilities: Groningen 41% | Draw 27% | Twente 32%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.43 | Draw 3.72 | Twente 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 20% (last 10 home games) | Twente 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 41% | Draw 27% | Twente 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Groningen 1.34 / Twente 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.704 / def 0.764 | Twente attack 1.149 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Groningen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Twente xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Twente FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Twente kick off?
Groningen vs Twente kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Twente?
Groningen 1 - 1 Twente.
Where is Groningen vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Twente part of?
Groningen vs Twente is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 41% chance of winning, Twente a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and Twente will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Groningen vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.70x the league average against Twente's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 23 games and Twente's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Twente xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Twente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Groningen and 1.15 for Twente, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 14D 16L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Twente's form line: 33W 12D 12L from 57 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.67 PPG, Twente on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 8D 4L).
On the road, Twente have gone 10W 8D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 2.05 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Twente
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Twente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Twente Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Twente in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Twente have gone 33W 12D 12L in their last 57 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Twente away?
Groningen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.00 PPG; Twente away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Groningen or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Twente in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2022, when Twente won Twente 3-0 Groningen.
Groningen's record when hosting Twente specifically: 0W 5D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Groningen
5
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Twente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Twente?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 0, Twente have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Twente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Groningen 2-2 Twente.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 36%, Twente 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Groningen and 71% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Twente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Twente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Groningen's recent matches and 64% of Twente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Twente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Groningen's matches and 71% of Twente's.
Do Groningen and Twente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Groningen's recent matches and 75% of Twente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 24, as Groningen and Twente drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.34 xG and Twente 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.70 / defence 0.76 against Twente attack 1.15 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 41% | Draw 27% | Twente 32%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Twente 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Twente's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.67 PPG, Twente 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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