Groningen 0-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Euroborg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Groningen's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Groningen 0W, Heracles 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–4 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Groningen — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games).
Heracles — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 66% versus Heracles 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 45% | Heracles 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.32 xG and Heracles 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.933 / defence 1.215 | Heracles attack 0.669 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.264. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Groningen games / 29 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 43% | Draw 28% | Heracles 29%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Heracles 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 60% | Heracles 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 43% | Draw 28% | Heracles 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Groningen 1.32 / Heracles 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.933 / def 1.215 | Heracles attack 0.669 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Groningen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Heracles xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Heracles kick off?
Groningen vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Heracles?
Groningen 0 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Groningen vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Heracles part of?
Groningen vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 43% chance of winning, Heracles a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Groningen and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Groningen and Heracles in?
Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Groningen's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.67x) against Groningen's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.62
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.35
1.03
Heracles xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Groningen and 1.03 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 9D 11L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.03 PPG from 29 outings (8W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Groningen against 1.03 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Groningen's home form reads 4W 6D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.36 points per game from 14 outings (1W 2D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Heracles in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Heracles have gone 8W 6D 15L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Heracles away?
Groningen's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.29 PPG; Heracles away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Groningen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Heracles 1-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Heracles?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 57%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Groningen) and 50% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games; Heracles in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Groningen's recent games and 50% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Heracles tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Heracles in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.32 xG and Heracles 1.03 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Heracles attack 0.67 / defence 1.26, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 43% | Draw 28% | Heracles 29%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 45%, Heracles 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.24 PPG, Heracles 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.