Groningen 1-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Fortuna Sittard — this Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Fortuna Sittard at Euroborg in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Groningen — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Groningen's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Sittard stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Sittard's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Groningen at 1.30 PPG versus Fortuna Sittard's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Fortuna Sittard have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Groningen.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Groningen 0–1 Fortuna Sittard — a Fortuna Sittard win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fortuna Sittard have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 46% versus Fortuna Sittard 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 51% | Fortuna Sittard 58%). Note also that Fortuna Sittard surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Groningen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.20 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.707 / defence 0.793 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.049 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.266. Groningen's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Groningen have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Fortuna Sittard's projected output down. Data: built from Groningen's last 24 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 59.
Result probabilities: Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 32%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.56 | Draw 3.40 | Fortuna Sittard 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 30% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Groningen 1.20 / Fortuna Sittard 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.707 / def 0.793 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.049 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Groningen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fortuna Sittard xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Groningen 1 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 39% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Groningen and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.71) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 24 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.40
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.26
1.05
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Groningen and 1.05 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 28W 15D 16L from 59 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 25L across 59 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 16W 9D 4L from their last 29 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 5W 9D 15L across their last 29 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.17 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 16D 25L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Groningen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.97 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Groningen or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Groningen won Fortuna Sittard 1-4 Groningen.
Groningen's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
6
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 38%, Fortuna Sittard 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Groningen) and 59% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 31% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Groningen's recent matches and 45% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Groningen's recent games and 59% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Groningen's recent matches and 69% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out Fortuna Sittard 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Fortuna Sittard 1-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.20 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 0.79 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 24/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 32%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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