Groningen 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 26 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Groningen 2W, Cambuur 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 63% versus Cambuur 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 55% | Cambuur 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.36 xG and Cambuur 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.966 / defence 1.386 | Cambuur attack 0.786 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.201. Data: 51 Groningen games / 51 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 36% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 34%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Cambuur 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Cambuur 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 36% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Groningen 1.36 / Cambuur 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.966 / def 1.386 | Cambuur attack 0.786 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Groningen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cambuur xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Cambuur kick off?
Groningen vs Cambuur kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 26 January 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Cambuur?
Groningen 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Groningen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Cambuur part of?
Groningen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 36% chance of winning, Cambuur a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Groningen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Cambuur?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Groningen and Cambuur in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.79x) against Groningen's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.32
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.67
1.31
Cambuur xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Groningen and 1.31 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 12D 27L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 13W 9D 29L from 51 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Groningen against 0.94 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.22 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 12D 27L in their last 51 games (0.94 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 9D 29L in their last 51 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 60%, Cambuur 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Groningen) and 60% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 28% of games; Cambuur in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Groningen's recent matches and 48% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Groningen's recent games and 60% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.36 xG and Cambuur 1.31 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.97 / defence 1.39 against Cambuur attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 36% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 34%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 55%, Cambuur 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.94 PPG, Cambuur 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.