Groningen 1-4 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 3W 1D 6L at Euroborg — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Groningen have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 63% and AZ Alkmaar 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 49% | AZ Alkmaar 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.02 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.764 / defence 1.020 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.289 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.304. Groningen's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Groningen games / 41 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 23% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 54%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 1.85. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 50% | AZ Alkmaar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 23% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Groningen 1.02 / AZ Alkmaar 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.764 / def 1.020 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.289 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
AZ Alkmaar xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Groningen 1 - 4 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Groningen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.76x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
23%
4.43
24%
4.19
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.74
1.71
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.43
23%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
4%
24.58
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Groningen and 1.71 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 11D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.98 PPG from 41 outings (24W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.02 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 73%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 24W 9D 8L in their last 41 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.11 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Groningen at 58%, AZ Alkmaar at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Groningen) and 74% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Groningen's games and 74% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Groningen's recent games and 74% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 1-4 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.02 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.71 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.29 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 23% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 54%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 49%, AZ Alkmaar 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.