GO Ahead Eagles 1-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host PSV Eindhoven at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. GO Ahead Eagles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Adelaarshorst, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Adelaarshorst. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — GO Ahead Eagles are significantly better at De Adelaarshorst than their overall form suggests.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PSV Eindhoven — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (GO Ahead Eagles 20% | PSV Eindhoven 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 20% | PSV Eindhoven 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 0.89 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.821 / defence 0.909 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.071 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.349. Data: 5 GO Ahead Eagles games / 5 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 25% | Draw 28% | PSV Eindhoven 46%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | PSV Eindhoven 2.17. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 0% | PSV Eindhoven 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 25% | Draw 28% | PSV Eindhoven 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 0.89 / PSV Eindhoven 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.821 / def 0.909 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.071 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.31
PSV Eindhoven xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 25% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
25%
3.94
28%
3.54
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.21
1.31
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.31 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 1L across 5 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GO Ahead Eagles heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GO Ahead Eagles have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; PSV Eindhoven in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have GO Ahead Eagles or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GO Ahead Eagles
0
Draws
9
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 1-4 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — GO Ahead Eagles 20% BTTS, PSV Eindhoven 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 80% (PSV Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 40%; GO Ahead Eagles have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 40% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent games and 80% of PSV Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out GO Ahead Eagles 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-2 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 0.89 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.31 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 25% | Draw 28% | PSV Eindhoven 46%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 20%, PSV Eindhoven 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.