Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Heracles travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG, Heracles 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Heracles trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 58% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 65% | Heracles 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.27 xG and Heracles 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.812 / defence 1.258 | Heracles attack 0.559 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.296. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Fortuna Sittard games / 27 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 45% | Draw 29% | Heracles 27%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Heracles 3.70. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 45% | Draw 29% | Heracles 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.27 / Heracles 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.812 / def 1.258 | Heracles attack 0.559 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Heracles xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Fortuna Sittard 0 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 45% chance of winning, Heracles a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.81x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.49
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.18
0.91
Heracles xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.91 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 6W 4D 16L from 26 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 13L across 26 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 0.85 PPG, Heracles on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 0W 1D 11L across 12 trips, a 0.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 6W 4D 16L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while Heracles have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heracles away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.17 PPG; Heracles away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 58%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Sittard and 58% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 58% of Heracles's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heracles tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Heracles in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Fortuna Sittard 0-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.27 xG and Heracles 0.91 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.81 / defence 1.26 against Heracles attack 0.56 / defence 1.37, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 45% | Draw 29% | Heracles 27%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 65%, Heracles 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 0.85 PPG, Heracles 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.