Fortuna Sittard 4-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Heracles travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Sittard 0.90 PPG, Heracles 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Heracles trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus Heracles 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 62% | Heracles 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.64 xG and Heracles 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.740 / defence 0.929 | Heracles attack 0.717 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.353. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Fortuna Sittard games / 11 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 31% | Heracles 17%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Heracles 5.88. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 40% | Heracles 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 31% | Heracles 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.64 / Heracles 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.740 / def 0.929 | Heracles attack 0.717 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Heracles xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Fortuna Sittard 4 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 51% chance of winning, Heracles a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Heracles (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.74x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
51%
1.94
31%
3.20
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.54
0.90
Heracles xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.90 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 12W 10D 23L from 45 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 27W 6D 12L across 45 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 7W 6D 9L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.33 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Heracles have gone 27W 6D 12L in their last 45 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heracles away?
Heracles's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.23 PPG; Heracles away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 41%, Heracles 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fortuna Sittard and 77% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 59% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 77% of Heracles's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heracles tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Heracles in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Sittard run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Heracles 4-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.64 xG and Heracles 0.90 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 31% | Heracles 17%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 62%, Heracles 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.