Fortuna Sittard 3-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FC Volendam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Fortuna Sittard) versus 0.90 (FC Volendam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 54% versus FC Volendam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 60% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.69 xG and FC Volendam 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.776 / defence 0.820 | FC Volendam attack 0.825 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.526. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Fortuna Sittard games / 37 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 21%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | FC Volendam 4.76. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 40% | FC Volendam 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.69 / FC Volendam 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.776 / def 0.820 | FC Volendam attack 0.825 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Volendam xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 50% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.78x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.47
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.72
1.03
FC Volendam xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
4%
26.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.03 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 11W 9D 17L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 10W 6D 21L from 37 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.14 PPG, FC Volendam on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 5D 12L from 18 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.19 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 10W 6D 21L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or FC Volendam away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.28 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 39%, FC Volendam 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fortuna Sittard) and 67% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 39% of games; FC Volendam in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 56% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 3-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.69 xG and FC Volendam 1.03 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.78 / defence 0.82 against FC Volendam attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 21%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 60%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.14 PPG, FC Volendam 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.