Feyenoord 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus NAC Breda in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Feijenoord, Feyenoord have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
NAC Breda (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Feyenoord's favour (2.40 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 55% and NAC Breda 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 68% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.98 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.138 / defence 0.869 | NAC Breda attack 0.710 / defence 1.523. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.269. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.523 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Feyenoord games / 5 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 80% | Draw 15% | NAC Breda 5%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.25 | Draw 6.67 | NAC Breda 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (80%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 30% | NAC Breda 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 80% | Draw 15% | NAC Breda 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 53% | xG Feyenoord 2.98 / NAC Breda 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.138 / def 0.869 | NAC Breda attack 0.710 / def 1.523 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.98
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.78
NAC Breda xG
53%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs NAC Breda kick off?
Feyenoord vs NAC Breda kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs NAC Breda?
Feyenoord 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Feyenoord vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs NAC Breda part of?
Feyenoord vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 80% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 5% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Feyenoord and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and NAC Breda in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.14x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.71x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 38/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
80%
1.25
15%
6.78
5%
18.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.98
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.77
0.78
NAC Breda xG
1.25
80%
Home win
6.78
15%
Draw
18.80
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
5%
19.73
Win to Nil
37%
2.74
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.78 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.37 PPG on a 27W 9D 2L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 16W 10D 12L from 38 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.39 PPG from 18 outings (13W 4D 1L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.66 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.74 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 66%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 27W 9D 2L in their last 38 games (2.37 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or NAC Breda away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.39 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 2, NAC Breda have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NAC Breda 3-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and NAC Breda?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 44%, NAC Breda 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 67% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 61% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of NAC Breda's.
Do Feyenoord and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat NAC Breda 2-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.98 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 1.52, drawn from 38/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 80% | Draw 15% | NAC Breda 5%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 68%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
NAC Breda's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.89 scoring average — below par going forward. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.