Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Excelsior.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Excelsior travel to De Kuip to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at De Kuip: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Feyenoord hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Excelsior, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 60% versus Excelsior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 62% | Excelsior 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.17 xG and Excelsior 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.261 / defence 1.093 | Excelsior attack 0.794 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.384. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Feyenoord games / 26 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 59% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 20%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 90% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 59% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Feyenoord 2.17 / Excelsior 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.261 / def 1.093 | Excelsior attack 0.794 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Excelsior xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Excelsior kick off?
Feyenoord vs Excelsior kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Feyenoord vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Excelsior part of?
Feyenoord vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 59% chance of winning, Excelsior a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Feyenoord and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
Record (5 meetings): Feyenoord 5W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Excelsior in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Excelsior (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.26) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.57
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.37
1.20
Excelsior xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
11%
8.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
2%
44.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.20 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 12D 13L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (27W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 1.95 PPG, Excelsior on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feyenoord's home form reads 19W 3D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.52 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 35W 12D 13L in their last 60 games (1.95 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Excelsior away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.14 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Excelsior in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 6, Excelsior have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Feyenoord at 64%, Excelsior at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Feyenoord and 68% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Feyenoord's games and 68% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Feyenoord's matches and 68% of Excelsior's.
Do Feyenoord and Excelsior tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Excelsior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 2-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.17 xG and Excelsior 1.20 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 1.09 against Excelsior attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 59% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 20%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 1.95 PPG, Excelsior 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.