Feyenoord 4-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (88%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Excelsior.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Excelsior's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Feyenoord hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Excelsior, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 4–2 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 64% | Excelsior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 3.74 xG and Excelsior 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.509 / defence 0.617 | Excelsior attack 0.915 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — their λ of 3.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.617 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Feyenoord games / 67 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 88% | Draw 9% | Excelsior 4%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.14 | Draw 11.11 | Excelsior 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (88%) — a 84pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 4.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 88% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 88% | Draw 9% | Excelsior 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 56% | xG Feyenoord 3.74 / Excelsior 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.509 / def 0.617 | Excelsior attack 0.915 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (88%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.74
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Excelsior xG
56%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Excelsior kick off?
Feyenoord vs Excelsior kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Feyenoord 4 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Feyenoord vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Excelsior part of?
Feyenoord vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 88% chance of winning, Excelsior a 4% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Feyenoord and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 3W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Excelsior in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.51) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 3.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 4-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
88%
1.14
9%
11.56
4%
26.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.74
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
4.57
0.83
Excelsior xG
1.14
88%
Home win
11.56
9%
Draw
26.04
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
2%
42.10
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 3.74 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.83 for Excelsior, a combined total of 4.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 88%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord come into this having played 67 games, going 50W 13D 4L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 0.91 PPG from 67 outings (15W 16D 36L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.52 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Feyenoord's home form reads 24W 7D 2L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 0.48 points per game from 33 outings (3W 7D 23L). That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.22 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 50W 13D 4L in their last 67 games (2.43 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 15W 16D 36L in their last 67 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Excelsior away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.39 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Excelsior in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 6, Excelsior have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 46%, Excelsior 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Feyenoord and 73% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Excelsior in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 54% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Feyenoord's matches and 73% of Excelsior's.
Do Feyenoord and Excelsior tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 4-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 3.74 xG and Excelsior 0.83 xG, a combined 4.57. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.51 / defence 0.62 against Excelsior attack 0.92 / defence 1.44, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 88% | Draw 9% | Excelsior 4%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 88%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, Excelsior 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Excelsior's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.55 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.