Feyenoord 6-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and Almere City FC meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Feijenoord this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Almere City FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Feyenoord's favour (2.30 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Almere City FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 58% | Almere City FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.86 xG and Almere City FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 0.885 / defence 0.758 | Almere City FC attack 0.822 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.430. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Feyenoord games / 2 Almere City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 59% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Almere City FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 50% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 59% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Feyenoord 1.86 / Almere City FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 0.885 / def 0.758 | Almere City FC attack 0.822 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Almere City FC kick off?
Feyenoord vs Almere City FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Feyenoord 6 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Feyenoord vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Almere City FC part of?
Feyenoord vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 59% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Feyenoord and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and Almere City FC in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Feyenoord's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.82x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.00
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.75
0.89
Almere City FC xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
39.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.89 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord come into this having played 36 games, going 25W 9D 2L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (19W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feyenoord's home form reads 12W 5D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.89 points per game from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Almere City FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 25W 9D 2L in their last 36 games (2.33 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Almere City FC away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.28 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 6-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, Almere City FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Feyenoord 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Almere City FC?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 44%, Almere City FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Feyenoord) and 33% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Almere City FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 44% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Feyenoord's recent games and 33% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Almere City FC 6-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.86 xG and Almere City FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 0.89 / defence 0.76 against Almere City FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 59% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 16%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 58%, Almere City FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.